Bitcoin Nears All-Time High Despite German Government Sell-Off
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading just shy of its previous all-time high1…, marking a significant moment for crypto traders and investors1. The market is experiencing bullish sentiment, fueled by a combination of factors including notable on-chain activity and strong demand1….
The German Government’s Significant BTC Sale
A key event recently highlighted is the German government’s large-scale Bitcoin sell-off1…. According to data shared by Lookonchain on May 21, 2025, the German government sold 49,858 BTC between June 19 and July 12, 20241…. This sale was worth $2.87 billion at an average price of $57,600 per BTC1….
As of May 21, 2025, with Bitcoin’s price significantly higher, those same 49,858 BTC are valued at $5.33 billion1…. This indicates a substantial missed profit of $2.46 billion for the German government1…. This large government liquidation initially added selling pressure to the BTC markets5, and likely contributed to temporary downward pressure1. However, the market absorbed this volume, suggesting robust institutional and retail demand1….
Current Market Status and Indicators
As of May 21, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $106,900 on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase1, and past $107,500 on Wednesday4, nearing its previous all-time high of $108,000 set in March 20241. At 11:07 AM IST, Bitcoin was trading at $107,6476. Bitcoin has been holding above $100,000 for more than 11 straight days7, which some traders view as a sign of accumulation and strength7.
Several indicators support the current bullish outlook:
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Futures Open Interest: Across major exchanges, futures open interest hit an all-time high of $75 billion in U.S. dollar terms on Tuesday3, or $74.35 billion driven by a 10.65% jump6, signaling heightened speculative activity and leveraged positioning3…. Binance alone contributed $12.28 billion to this open interest6.
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Technical Indicators:
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The 50-day moving average is at $98,500 and the 200-day MA is at $92,300 as of May 21, 2025, both significantly below the current price, confirming a bullish trend1.
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The MACD line crossed above the signal line on May 18, 2025, indicating continued upward momentum1.
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The relative strength index (RSI) was 68 on the daily chart as of 9:00 AM UTC on May 21, 2025, suggesting it is approaching overbought territory but may still have room for upward movement before a correction1.
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On-Chain Data:
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Glassnode data shows BTC’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) ratio at 0.62 as of May 21, 2025, meaning most holders are in profit and less likely to sell, potentially reducing supply pressure1.
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Exchange inflows decreased by 15% over the past week, suggesting reduced selling intent1.
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On-chain data also shows steady accumulation by large holders6.
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Institutional Inflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $41.7 million on Tuesday, extending a positive streak6. Net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs was $320 million over the past week ending May 21, 20251. This reflects strong institutional money flow into the crypto space1.
Despite the rising positioning and euphoric sentiment, short-term implied volatility has dropped to an 18-month low of 35–40%8, indicating a relatively calm market backdrop8.
Trading Opportunities and Risks
The current price action appears to be a consolidation phase, potentially setting the stage for a move to new all-time highs7. The resistance level at $107,000 has held for now9. Sathvik Vishwanath, Co-Founder and CEO of Unocoin, noted strong support at $98,000 and key resistance at $109,500, suggesting that a breach of $109,500 could target $112,0006. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich suggested that breaking the $107K resistance would open a path toward $115K9.
Traders are positioning for a breakout, as evidenced by the call-to-put open interest ratio reaching 1.55 and rising premiums for out-of-the-money calls8. Based on the price action as of May 21, 2025, traders could consider longing BTC against stablecoins like USDT or underperforming altcoins like ETH1, targeting a breakout above $108,0001…. A stop-loss order near $102,000 is suggested to manage risk1.
The correlation between BTC and major stock indices like the S&P 500 remains strong at 0.75 as of May 2025 data1. Positive stock market sentiment could further fuel BTC’s rally if risk appetite persists1. However, a sudden shift in risk appetite, such as a stock market correction, could trigger profit-taking in BTC1.
Other Cryptocurrencies
While Bitcoin dominates the market1, other cryptocurrencies are also experiencing gains4. Ethereum (ETH) has outperformed Bitcoin over the past month, rising nearly 60% and testing the key psychological resistance at $2,50010. ETH was trading at $2,589 as of 11:07 AM IST6. Among other altcoins, BNB rose 1.4%, Solana (SOL) 0.8%, Dogecoin (DOGE) 2.4%, and Cardano (ADA) 2%11.
Bitcoin’s market cap has risen to $2.123 trillion, holding a 62.9% share of the total crypto market11.